NDC Most Likely To Win 2024 Polls – UK-Based Firm, Fitch Projects

According to Fitch Solutions, a UK-based firm, there is a projection that the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) has a higher likelihood of winning the presidential election in Ghana in 2024. Fitch Solutions made this projection in its analysis titled ‘Positive Shift in Ghana’s Political Risk Profile Following IMF Programme Approval.’ The firm highlighted that the economic conditions in Ghana deteriorated rapidly in 2022, and the perceived slow progress in addressing corruption has led to a negative perception of the government’s performance. The analysis further states that these factors may contribute to increased anti-incumbency sentiment among Ghanaian voters.

Fitch Solutions also mentioned that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has expressed concerns regarding President Nana Akufo-Addo’s flagship initiative, the Free Senior High School program, which was implemented in 2017. The IMF has criticized the program, labeling it as “poorly targeted.”

Fitch Solutions further stated that if potential modifications are made to the Free Senior High School program to control spending, it could potentially weaken the campaign agenda of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), thereby increasing the chances of a victory for the National Democratic Congress (NDC).

Fitch Solutions expressed the belief that the risks to Ghana’s IMF program are minimal. They pointed out that previous governments led by the National Democratic Congress (NDC) have sought IMF loans, and the current leadership of the NDC has shown support for Ghana’s re-engagement with the IMF. They highlighted that Ghana’s previous IMF program from 2015 to 2019 was initiated under an NDC government.

Fitch Solutions has revised Ghana’s ‘policy continuity’ score in the Short-Term Political Risk Index (STPRI) to 70.0 out of 100, an increase from the previous score of 62.5. The firm noted that although the government has implemented tax increases, such as income taxes and value-added tax (VAT) during the first half of 2023, they expect that more stable exchange rates, decreasing inflation, and a stronger external position will gradually improve and stabilize the economic conditions in the country.

According to Fitch Solutions, they anticipate a decrease in protest activity in the second half of 2023, following a 17.2% year-on-year increase in protests and riots during the first half of the year. As a result, they have raised the ‘social stability’ score in their Short-Term Political Risk Index (STPRI) to 47.5 out of 100, compared to the previous score of 40.0 (a higher score indicates lower risk). Consequently, Ghana’s headline STPRI score has increased to 63.1 from 59.4. It is important to note that Ghana continues to outperform the regional average in Sub-Saharan Africa, where the average STPRI score is 50.3. This suggests that political risks in Ghana are relatively contained compared to other countries in the region.

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) made a prediction two months ago that aligns with the projection made by Fitch Solutions. According to the EIU, the National Democratic Congress (NDC) is expected to not only win the presidential election but also secure a slight majority in the legislature.

Source: GhanaFeed.Com