UK-Based Fitch Solutions Predicts NDC Victory In 2024 Polls
Fitch Solutions, a renowned research and data firm, has projected that the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) will defeat the governing New Patriotic Party (NPP) in Ghana’s upcoming general elections on December 7. The London-based firm, which has consistently forecasted an NDC victory since last year, bases its prediction on recent survey data and the current state of the economy.
Survey Insights
According to Fitch Solutions, 54 percent of respondents in their latest survey favor NDC’s candidate, John Mahama, over the incumbent NPP. Mike Kruiniger, Associate Director of Country Risk at Fitch Solutions, explained during the Mid-Year Review for Sub-Saharan Africa that economic challenges will significantly influence voter decisions.
“We believe that the opposition NDC has a stronger chance of winning the upcoming general elections compared to the ruling NPP. Recent polls consistently place the NDC ahead, with the most recent survey showing 54% of respondents favoring the NDC,” Kruiniger stated.
Economic Factors at Play
The state of Ghana’s economy has been a critical issue in the lead-up to the elections. Kruiniger noted that economic management and job creation are top priorities for voters, and these areas are perceived as weaknesses for the current NPP administration.
“Multiple surveys have shown that economic management and job creation are going to be the most important issues during the election for voters, which we believe will put the ruling NPP at a disadvantage given the economic challenges that the country has faced over the last couple of years,” he elaborated.
Policy Continuation Expected
Despite the predicted shift in government, Kruiniger indicated that the overall policy direction of Ghana is unlikely to change significantly under an NDC administration. He emphasized that a Mahama-led government would probably continue with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) program initiated by the Akufo-Addo-Bawumia administration.
“In terms of what a government change will mean for the economy, we think that policy direction under a likely NDC government will not largely change. The NDC will most likely stick to Ghana’s IMF program, particularly as the party has shown commitment in the past to international agreements and obligations. So in summary, we expect policy continuation in Ghana despite a likely government change,” he stressed.
As the December 7 general elections approach, the predictions by Fitch Solutions add a significant dimension to the political discourse in Ghana. The firm’s analysis suggests that economic issues will be pivotal in the upcoming vote, potentially favoring the opposition NDC. However, the anticipated policy continuity under a new administration provides a sense of stability for international stakeholders and investors.
The upcoming elections are poised to be a critical juncture for Ghana, with the economy and job creation at the forefront of voter concerns.