2024 Election: Bawumia Leads Mahama In Latest Survey

A recent survey conducted by Kumasi Technical University (KTU) has projected a victory for the New Patriotic Party (NPP) flagbearer, Vice President Dr. Mahamadu Bawumia, in the upcoming December elections. The survey, led by Prof. Smart Sarpong, an Associate Professor of Statistics and Director of Research and Innovation at Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST), involved 59,547 voters from 16 regions, sampled from 275 constituencies. Data collection occurred from April 1 to April 30, 2024.

According to the findings, Dr. Bawumia enjoys the support of 38.9% of Ghanaians, while ex-President John Dramani Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) has the support of 36.1%. Other candidates polled 3.6%, with 21.4% of eligible voters remaining undecided. The survey also revealed that the NDC is more popular than the NPP among respondents, despite Mahama’s lower individual support compared to Bawumia.

Regionally, the NPP leads in Ahafo, Ashanti, Bono, Central, Eastern, North East, and Western regions. Conversely, the NDC leads in Bono East, Greater Accra, Northern, Oti, Savannah, Upper East, Upper West, and Volta regions. Despite the NDC leading in more regions, the NPP’s concentrated support in key areas enhances Bawumia’s electoral prospects.

The survey highlighted that the majority of respondents were aged between 18 and 45 years. When deciding their vote, 50.3% of Ghanaians cited the competence of the leader as the most important factor, followed by 22.5% prioritizing the candidate’s track record. Party affiliation was the main reason for 19.1% of voters, while 3.7% admitted that financial inducements would influence their decision. Additionally, 1.2% and 0.9% of voters indicated religion and ethnicity, respectively, as their deciding factors.

Regarding policy concerns, 33.7% of voters were most concerned about the economy, while 21.1% prioritized unemployment. Infrastructure issues, including poor roads, water, and power challenges, concerned 33.5% of respondents. Other significant issues included illegal mining, LGBTQ rights, corruption, and poor sanitation.

In the North East Region, which is Dr. Bawumia’s home region, he enjoys strong support with only 9.8% of respondents undecided about their vote. Prof. Sarpong emphasized the importance of political research in capturing public opinion and energizing political actors. He urged campaign teams to intensify efforts to sway undecided voters and address key voter concerns to secure political power.

The KTU survey signals a competitive race with a slight edge for Dr. Bawumia and the NPP, highlighting the critical importance of voter outreach and addressing core issues such as the economy, unemployment, and infrastructure.

Source: GhanaFeed.Com