IPG Survey Predicts Victory for Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia in Upcoming Presidential Elections

A recent nationwide survey conducted by the Institute of Progressive Governance (IPG) indicates that Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, the Vice President and presidential candidate of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP), is poised to win the 2024 general elections if they were held today.

The findings, unveiled at a press conference on Thursday, November 28, 2024, at the International Press Centre in Accra, revealed that Dr. Bawumia would secure 50.2% of the votes, edging out his closest rival, John Dramani Mahama of the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC), who is projected to garner 47.3%. Other candidates combined would account for 2.5% of the vote.

Professor Isaac Boadi, who presented the results, emphasized that Dr. Bawumia’s expected victory is attributed to significant support in the NPP’s stronghold regions, particularly Ashanti and Eastern, despite Mahama’s projected dominance in nine regions.

Regional Distribution of Support

According to the survey, the NDC is likely to win the Greater Accra, Western North, Upper East, Upper West, Savannah, Volta, Oti, Bono East, and Northern Regions. Meanwhile, the NPP is forecasted to triumph in the North East, Bono, Ahafo, Western, Central, Eastern, and Ashanti Regions.

Dr. George Domfe, a co-presenter of the report, noted that the study had a robust sample size of 27,445 respondents, with data collected from three electoral areas within each of the country’s 276 constituencies.

Voter Undecided Segment

The research also highlighted that 5.5% of respondents were either undecided or did not intend to vote. This undecided demographic could still influence the final outcome of the elections, making it critical for political parties to intensify their outreach efforts in the final days of campaigning.

Credibility of Findings

Dr. Domfe pointed to the accuracy of a similar survey conducted by his team ahead of the 2020 elections, which closely matched the actual election results. He urged both the NPP and NDC to take the findings seriously and strategize accordingly as the December 7 election date approaches.

With the election only a week away, the survey provides a snapshot of voter sentiment, highlighting the significant regional dynamics and the decisive role of turnout in key strongholds. The stage is set for a closely contested election, with both major political parties vying for victory in what promises to be a pivotal moment in Ghana’s democratic history.